A little digression on Putinland

Canadian cincinnatus rightly points out how unwitting pawns can buy into Kremlin propaganda and be duped into believing that Russia is the greatest world superpower. However, Cincinnatus falls into the opposite trap: buying into uninformed Western media reporting.

Cincinnatus contends that the Moscow apartment bombings that spurred the latest Chechen war were orchestrated by the Putin government. I don't believe they were. Considering how idiotic the russian administration is, such a ploy would have come to light and would have been botched up no doubt. Russian apartment buildings are a joke to get into, and explosives are easy to find if you know where to look. My odds that it was the government are at least 5:1.

Moreover, Cincinnatus rightly remarks that Putin won re-election twice in at times very murky circumstances. I am no fan of Mr P's, but I do see a general discontent among the population toward the alternative parties of power and the alternative candidates. Many of them lack credibility (kas'yanov, the oligarch's buddy?). Thus Putin is often the sole choice people have, lest their country be entrusted to someone without a power base (who will therefore seek it with the oligarchs, we've seen how this worked in the 90's) or someone completely deranged. Odds of Putin cheating are 3:1 in my books.

Next, Cincinnatus contends that Russia invaded Georgia on purpose and had the operation planned. The latter is true. The former is bullshit. The pot has been boiling for years and the Russians definitely had a plan to kick Georgian butt. Since the southern President has a tendency to bark at his neighbor while hiding beyond a fictitious veil of Western solidarity, it is no surprise that the offended party has a reserve plan to bust him. Moreover, Russians have a very powerful intelligence service. They knew what Georgia was doing, and therefore were ready to respond. Easy.

The whole area of the former Soviet Union has to be construed as a governmental IQ black hole. Assume that each and every government in the region is stupid. What would a stupid government do? Many crises explained, not least the latest gas standoff which was used as a trading horse between the warring orange factions.

Cincinnatus further states that Putin ordered the assassination of Alexander Litvinenko. I doubt it. Firstly, the guy had no real sensitive secret to hold. At most he was a good conspiracy theorist. Secondly, he kept sketchy company, including convicted and wanted terrorist Ahmed Zakayev, who is KNOWN to have organised deadly attacks. Thirdly, if Putin and the FSB wanted to assassinate Litvinenko, a gun shot in a dark alley would have been the chosen method. Any chemical is easy to come about in Russia provided you look hard enough. I wouldn't have risked such negative publicity for such a pawn. Poisoning Berezovsky, on the other hand, would have been a clear FSB job mandated from high above.

Don't get me wrong. I too believe Putin is a thug, that he is incompetent with the economy and very murky in his dealings. However I refuse to believe that someone would risk so much for so little, whether the so little is humiliating Georgia or poisoning Litvinenko. But again, stupid is as stupid does. One never knows.