What if the Egyptians really succeed?

The Egypt protests have achieved a statement by Hosni Mubarak that he won't seek re-election. More importantly, they've secured a guarantee from the Army that they won't shoot. Between the two, it's the latter that counts.

In a country where 90% of the territory is a designated military zone some way or the other, and a permanent state of emergency has reigned for most of the past years the insubordination (of sorts) of the armed forces is a clear sign the current ruler has lost the rudder.

Well, good for Egypt for getting rid of a despot. As the record of "hope and change" is shaky in the beacon of democracy that is the US, the prospect for Egypt is hardly rosy.

Whichever "democratic" government comes to power, it will have three main agenda items: curtailing Army and Police powers, maintaining American military aid and keeping a peaceful relationship with Israel.

Whichever they do, they'll be damned by a very key stakeholder. The US should be wary of bankrolling a Brotherhood-backed government; being nice to Israel will upset the Brotherhood or - if done with Brotherhood support - significantly dent Egypt's appeal as a regional power broker; lastly, the moment special forces see their free-for-all come to an end, their "support" for the uprising will fade as quickly as it materialised.

I honestly hope Egypt makes it through. Looking at the past few "revolutions", I am disheartened. Kosovo is run by crooks. Georgia has a megalomaniac dictator for leader. Kyrgyzstan needed a revolutionary "follow-up" that nearly ended in civil war. Ukrainians decided the crook they wanted out was an improvement over the rabble they put in his place. Tunisia is still convulsing and God knows what's in store in Algeria and Yemen. A power vacuum in Egypt is the last thing we need.

So long Hosni. I hope you won't have cause to quote to your opponents former Russian PM Viktor Chernomyrdin. His words - "We wanted to do what's best, and it ended up as usual" - would be a tragedy if applied to the Egypt, and the world of today.