All Tories may be raising their glasses to the new Senate majority, but the celebrations will be cut short. Parliament will resume following a tremendously unpopular prorogation with a House of Commons afflicted by rampant partisanship and overflowing with egos. On his part Harper has lost the last excuse for legislation not being passed. Try negotiating Cape Horn on a wooden log through gales, icebergs and rain with nothing but a tiny oar and you might get a picture of the task before the Conservative government in the next session.
This Government has steered the economy through a recession, made Canada's opinion relevant again and made inroads into traditional Liberal policy strongholds. Yet the Conservative party has failed to clinch the deal with the electorate, otherwise how can one explain them being neck and neck with the Grits? I bet many Tory supporters will be asking themselves the very same question.
I am no politico, but I can spot unsuccessful tactics. The government made the serious mistake of relying on the "thank you" vote on many issues in 2008, such as the "Quebec nation" declaration. It doesn't work. What's given is given and the public wants more for their lent vote. The defence of doing what other parties have done extensively is wearing thin: if you're different you have to show it.
Michael Ignatieff would be right to smell blood: four years of good government and no guaranteed majority in sight are a sign of wariness. He also has one last chance to reverse the new Senate majority: conservative Senator Wilbert Keon retires in May. An early March dissolution would lead to an April election. By May a new government could be installed and appointing the new Senator. This Government is vulnerable.
So far it has been smooth-ish sailing for Harper. Weak Liberal leadership and a warming Canadian public opinion buoyed him to government twice. On March 3rd the big game begins: he has run out of excuses. Petty legislative shots at the opposition will no longer be tolerated in the Commons and outside. The Tory communications apparatus will have to clean up their act and get cracking with strong and effective messages. If Parliament turns out to be uncooperative Harper will have no option but to seek an election in early June, too close to the start of the new prorogued session to be kosher.
Harper is expected to deliver a visionary Throne Speech, a good Budget, tough crime legislation and Senate reform bills. Each will irk the Liberals and is loaded with perils if not spun properly (arts travel grant controversy docet), while the electorate still needs convincing. If you thought we were at the peak you'd better clench your buttocks and hold on to your harnesses: we could be in for a ride. Playtime is over.
