Reflections on an expected outcome

Italy is Berlusconi's, again. I expected this result and therefore am not shocked, scandalized or appalled. A mix of gullibility, disillusionment with the left-wing government and blind loyalty brought the colorful billionaire a majority even without the centrist or ultra-fascist votes. Hats off.

This new Parliament, son of a ghastly election law, will however be a great improvement on the past. First and foremost the radical parties have been wiped out by the coherence of the major allies, who refused blackmail by the so-called kings of the 1%.

A usual deal would involve an ininfluential party demanding more "safe" seats from its greater counterpart in exchange for its tiny but potentially crucial contribution. In this election things were different. The radical left were left stranded by the moderate wing of progressives and catholics merging into the Democratic Party (PD), in coalition with former prosecutor Di Pietro's Italy of Values. The radical and unrepenting fascists were left out by the coerced convergence of populists and the (reformed) heirs of the fascist lineage into the PdL, in coalition with two autonomist parties. The centrists gambled most, and won.

As it stands now, Berlusconi should have a solid House majority of 340 (out of over 600), the Democrat coalition at 241 and the centrists alone at 34. At the Senate the right coalition will have 163 versus the PD's 141, plus two senators for the centrists who managed to overcome the 8% barrier somewhere.

Overall several parties caucused into the major ones, but a total count puts six parties in Parliament, plus sprinkles of regional parties caucusing with one of the majors. The hopeful radical left didn't break any of the barriers, slipping from a total of 10% in the last election to a meagre 3% this time, resulting in its parliamentary caucus which included pacifists, trotskyists and whatnot being wiped out. Fascist factions too have been wiped out, as most minor parties.

The outcome of this election offers food for thought.

The tremendous success of the Northern League (the Lega) is not just a protest vote against immigration or the political "caste". It is the only party openly advocating federalism and the North, cheated by the left in 2006 on the promise of a constitutional review, propelled the party to peaks of 25% in Lombardy. Federalism will be achieved this time and a referendum will be called again. If it fails on the votes of the numerous (and money-sucking) South I fear a rift will open. The irrelevant southern autonomists should push the federalist case HARD. Fiscal federalism is the only way to starve the Mafia of state money and make the regional administrations accountable for their waste.

Italians have abandoned communist delusions. Irresponsible trade unions, unintelligent pacifism, ambiguity on anti-globalization vandalism and ill-advised externations have cost the left dear. We have had enough.

Fascism is confined to the black dustbin of history, with all of the remaining parties scooping up less than 4%. Reformed nationalism is now part of the PdL, and it's a historic change.

The Catholic centre is irrelevant and I wish it well, since it could be a good counterbalance to Berlusconi's excesses in the next Parliament (my hopes of the latter retiring after this term in office would be extremely naive).

Parliament has become a little more governable, and the country too. This is not an opportunity to waste. It is also a wake-up call: old politics is on the way out and it is up to the survivors to bring Italy out of the factionalism that has dogged it since WW2 into a more Liberal vs Conservative arena.

Photo: AP