Election '08 report card: no A marks

An election is a cathartic experience. On election night most people are too exhausted to attack anyone any more. The leaders' speeches were fairly refreshing, kind of what politics should be about. I didn't blog much during the campaign because I thought it was mostly a gong show, as Right from Alberta pointed out at the very beginning.

A majority became impossible just a few weeks into the campaign. Despite the enthusiasm at rallies and the "steady as she goes" platform, I think we let certain weaker spots be monopolized in the debates and the media. We also delivered several policies wrong. Instead of balancing funding cuts with promotion of mecenatism we let the cuts rule the news. The Young Offenders amendment could have been delivered more diplomatically without the harsh language that lost us Quebec and potentially one of the most capable ministers in the outgoing government. I've seen a lot of pointed fingers, which almost completely hid the merits of every party's stances. If we were to write a report card, here's what it would look like for Headmaster Luca:

Liberals: The big survivor in this election. Between the Tory hammer pounding mercilessly and the hard anvil of Greens and NDP the party still managed not to go into complete disarray. Dion deserves credit for not breaking down in tears by the end of the campaign. Seeing Dion being pounded by Layton, someone close to me remarked: "He's so cute!" That's the main trouble with Dion - his cuteness. As a prof and as a scholar he is probably a star, in the world of politics he is a lamb sent to the slaughter. The Liberal Party needs to go on a fundraising spree if it wants to survive until the next election.

Tories: The ones who blew it. With the polls in majority territory they allowed themselves to be bogged down in minor matters. They need to re-evaluate their campaign milestones and their timing, and a trip to 30 Millbank, London UK may be in order. Definitely the party with the most impressive quantity of tangible electoral assets. Rarely can one blow a campaign and stay in government. We need to wake up to the fact, however, that people hate being taken for granted, and that's probably what killed us in Edmonton-Strathcona.

Bloc: Consistent with their record, the Bloc is biting, ready to fight with a frighteningly solid electoral basis. Considering their origin I am not surprised the major parties have a hard time beating them. Nevertheless they are the force to be reckoned with in Quebec. Their campaign, however, could have been much better, pointing more to their own stances rather than the need to not vote for a particular national party. Duceppe can teach the other leaders a few lessons in campaigning, debating and communications: his straight talk and granitic stubbornness give him a granitic base in his home province.

NDP: Great campaign, but drop the childish rhetoric. Seriously, the words "corporation", "big oil" and "Bush" aren't good premises for winning an election. And for the record corporations bring jobs, Big Oil is propping up Canada's economy and helping us avoid a major economic meltdown, while G.W. Bush kicked Taliban butts and hangs a Damocles sword above North Korea. Jack Layton holds no Gospel and the NDP has no monopoly over truth, morality or care. If Layton keeps up the efforts he may well overtake the Liberals very soon.

Greens: You are kidding, right?

One last thought for Newfoundland and Labrador. I've seen much N.L.-bashing in the Toriosphere, and I believe it is unfair. Newfoundlanders misplaced their trust and got kicked out of a Tory government in Ottawa. A more dramatic reality eluded many minds though. The election of October 14th showed that Newfoundland and Labrador is hardly essential for a majority government. Newfoundlanders may have paid back the Harper Government for equalization, but at the price of manifest irrelevance. THAT, my friends, is sad.

Harper sets record straight and scores

This one for the weeping hearts who lost their free flights to Cuba and those "Clear Hidden Agenda" language geniuses: your lies and uselessness have been exposed.

Abortion isn't an issue in this election and will never be. There's a Supreme Court ruling, and no measures can bring anything in by stealth. The activist liars should learn to deal with the fact that their cause is moot. I am sure they are aggrieved by the death of the cause for their existence, but hey, at least activist energy can be channeled to more effective and necessary campaigns.

As for arts funding being redirected to children's programs I'm all for it. Art, music, drama, virtually any form of expression can help children and youngsters develop a skill, channel their feelings, relate to other group members and learn responsibility. Without these means, the kid can be stranded and look for other ways of relating. One of those (many) ways is through youth gangs.

The Cuba aficionados will now have to justify their assertion that they prefer their own comfort to potentially helping thousands of children and building a more serene, responsible and, pardon the pun, harmonious society.

Liberal ads betray immaturity

Seeing the latest Liberal ads purportedly lambasting "Harpernomics" made me smile first and frown a second later. Do Canadians really fall for this, or are the grits just releasing junk into the ether for the fun of it?

Quoting the Toronto Star in their ads is plain childish. Alleging polluters are given blank cheques is false, since the Tories have environmental regulations at the provincial level. And if the Liberals believe that old-fashioned notion of government driving economic development it means they haven't grown up since the '80s. The sole driver of economic development is the wealth producer, not the redistributor. Companies and consumers create the drive needed to push the economy forward.

The ad about "liberal leadership" cites Dion's "achievement" of bringing together 182 countries to fight global warming. Rule of thumb dictates that the more attendees a meeting has the less matters can be resolved. The image of Dion whacking his gavel on the table is emblematic of him driving another nail in the coffin of multilateral environmentalism.

I can't imagine anyone being fooled by these superficial attacks on what has been an excellent record of economic management and leadership in a minority. Can you?

Globe and Mail's disappointing bias

Yesterday's G+M carried a piece by Heather Scoffield which, though touted as an "analysis", betrays at best lack of thought and at worst outright bias and intent to mislead. Presenting Tory and Liberal stances, Scoffield ends each section with statements "who benefits" and "who loses". Scoffield's comparisons may be factual (I hope) but are so biased a toddler would spot it. For instance on Government spending the stances are compared as follows:

Liberal:

Poverty reduction, families and seniors would receive more income supplements, funded by new revenue flowing through carbon taxes. The Liberals' record shows the party eliminated the $42-billion deficit in the late 1990s, but allowed spending to gradually creep up as a share of GDP.

Tory:

Mr. Flaherty argues it should be tightly controlled, though his own budgets have contained spending increases at least as large as those in many Liberal budgets. Spending is budgeted to be above 13 per cent of GDP, a higher ratio than in most years of Liberal government. The Canadian Taxpayers Federation estimates the Tories' pre-election spending promises total $19.2-billion, announced between June 2 and Sept. 6.

As for the evaluations of impact on Canadians' lives, the bias is clear:

Liberal:

Who benefits: Lower-income Canadians, through cuts to income tax and enhanced income supplements.

Who pays: The 700 large polluters who would pay the carbon tax.

Tory:

WHO BENEFITS: The middle class, because of cuts to consumption taxes and income taxes.

WHO PAYS: People who have lost their jobs at factories that have closed, because funding is for struggling firms that remain open.

If the carbon tax revenue is used to reduce poverty and pump money to certain segments of the populace it means the tax isn't revenue neutral because the same money isn't going back to businesses through tax cuts (as Scoffield purports) or consumers. Unless, of course, the Liberals cut social programs and create a "Fairness Fund" where the Green Shift money will trickle. Low-income Canadians will be treated to a cut in their benefits but an equivalent replacement by the "Fairness Fund", while paying higher grocery and fuel prices.

Same old Liberal baloney; same old media.

Three issues I'd like to see in the ads

Browsing through the Tory TV ads I noticed three great absences:

1) Environment
2) Debt culture
3) Economic shift

First off, the environment. The Party let Dion monopolize the debate on the issue with his carbon tax plan that is crumbling as we speak. These are very good times for releasing an ad featuring the Prime Minister talking openly about the Tory environmental policy, how we plan to face the challenges of increasing fuel prices and increasing demand for renewables.

Under an ideal Tory plan rewards would be given for efficiency and enviro-friendliness, such as tax credits. Under Dion, one would be punished for consuming, no matter what. Going through the hassle of being efficient would only reduce the punishment. Clearly, this is a ridiculously powerful message that we should be sending out.

Second, the debt culture. The mortgage collapse and the current state of the US economy offer food for thought regarding how people manage their money. Canada hasn't got the massive household debt the US is facing, yet I am not aware of any particular incentives for saving up instead of borrowing for consumption.

If families be important, certainty is important for families. Focusing on a shift to a savings culture would help hammer out the message that the Tories care for family solidity and wellbeing rather than just the stereotypical money they spend and the kids they make.

Thirdly, the economic shift. Manufacturing in Canada is undergoing a systemic crisis. Fuel costs, overseas labor, unionized pay and a collapse in domestic demand have driven many plants out of business. It is naive to expect this unemployment will just go away and it is very unwise to appear not to do much about it. Both McGuinty and Layton have seized the initiative on re-training funds, one way or another. Why not the Tories? I'd like the party to speak up on helping transitioning the Canadian workforce into higher-skilled specialty manufacture and service industries. This would create demand for education jobs, free up resources for other investments and secure Canadians' future job prospects.

These are only three issues I'd like the Party to address. When you count the pennies before payday you probably care a little less about what goes on above the 60th parallel.

If we're going to do it, let's be prepared

Mulling over elections is never good. Keeping Canadians on their toes isn't either. An election is possibly the most tangible aspect of politics: either there is or there isn't one.

The Prime Minister's concerns about the functioning of Parliament in the upcoming session are legitimate. Many bills would probably be killed by the Liberals, and if little progress is made in the by-elections the Grits will have an ace up their sleeve. Combined with a bruising 2008 so far we're NOT in a good position to trigger an election in our favor.

Many mishaps could have been avoided or run better (Bernier comes to mind). Our communications strategy could have focused more on accomplishments and vision for Canada, rather than just rubbishing the products of Stephane Dion's vivid imagination. The water strategy, mentioned in the Throne Speech, is nowhere to be seen from where I am. We're not exalting our claim to Arctic sovereignty as strongly as it deserves.

The PM is right to meet with opposition leaders to discuss the agenda for the next session of Parliament. We do, however, know the response. Bloc and NDP will say no, Liberals will say "we'll see". Calling them into the open is the best tactic. A draft agenda with specification of planned bill content will do the trick. If Dion stays silent he signs his own political death warrant. If he rejects the proposal the PM can go to the Governor General and ask very serenely to return to the ballot box before the commencement of the fall session.

There's no doubt Canada will go to the polls in September or October. What the Tories must do is tap into the vast reserve of popular and needed measures that would demonstrate leadership and vision. Some bills before Parliament right now are political TNT, with countless interpretations and possible skewings. That's NOT a baggage we can bring to the polls.

If we want to repeat the job interview with Canadians we have to be ready. Arctic sovereignty plans, economic policy to stimulate growth, re-training funds for displaced workforce, environmental sustainability and recovery frameworks are measures Canadians look for in a manifesto these days. Arguing about unborn children and petty investigations will only land both parties in quicksand. These are tough times that call for mature behavior and mature solutions. The Tories are the mature party by definition, let's keep that perception up.

Formulate, Demonstrate, Captivate. That's what gets a good election campaign started.

Reflections on an expected outcome

Italy is Berlusconi's, again. I expected this result and therefore am not shocked, scandalized or appalled. A mix of gullibility, disillusionment with the left-wing government and blind loyalty brought the colorful billionaire a majority even without the centrist or ultra-fascist votes. Hats off.

This new Parliament, son of a ghastly election law, will however be a great improvement on the past. First and foremost the radical parties have been wiped out by the coherence of the major allies, who refused blackmail by the so-called kings of the 1%.

A usual deal would involve an ininfluential party demanding more "safe" seats from its greater counterpart in exchange for its tiny but potentially crucial contribution. In this election things were different. The radical left were left stranded by the moderate wing of progressives and catholics merging into the Democratic Party (PD), in coalition with former prosecutor Di Pietro's Italy of Values. The radical and unrepenting fascists were left out by the coerced convergence of populists and the (reformed) heirs of the fascist lineage into the PdL, in coalition with two autonomist parties. The centrists gambled most, and won.

As it stands now, Berlusconi should have a solid House majority of 340 (out of over 600), the Democrat coalition at 241 and the centrists alone at 34. At the Senate the right coalition will have 163 versus the PD's 141, plus two senators for the centrists who managed to overcome the 8% barrier somewhere.

Overall several parties caucused into the major ones, but a total count puts six parties in Parliament, plus sprinkles of regional parties caucusing with one of the majors. The hopeful radical left didn't break any of the barriers, slipping from a total of 10% in the last election to a meagre 3% this time, resulting in its parliamentary caucus which included pacifists, trotskyists and whatnot being wiped out. Fascist factions too have been wiped out, as most minor parties.

The outcome of this election offers food for thought.

The tremendous success of the Northern League (the Lega) is not just a protest vote against immigration or the political "caste". It is the only party openly advocating federalism and the North, cheated by the left in 2006 on the promise of a constitutional review, propelled the party to peaks of 25% in Lombardy. Federalism will be achieved this time and a referendum will be called again. If it fails on the votes of the numerous (and money-sucking) South I fear a rift will open. The irrelevant southern autonomists should push the federalist case HARD. Fiscal federalism is the only way to starve the Mafia of state money and make the regional administrations accountable for their waste.

Italians have abandoned communist delusions. Irresponsible trade unions, unintelligent pacifism, ambiguity on anti-globalization vandalism and ill-advised externations have cost the left dear. We have had enough.

Fascism is confined to the black dustbin of history, with all of the remaining parties scooping up less than 4%. Reformed nationalism is now part of the PdL, and it's a historic change.

The Catholic centre is irrelevant and I wish it well, since it could be a good counterbalance to Berlusconi's excesses in the next Parliament (my hopes of the latter retiring after this term in office would be extremely naive).

Parliament has become a little more governable, and the country too. This is not an opportunity to waste. It is also a wake-up call: old politics is on the way out and it is up to the survivors to bring Italy out of the factionalism that has dogged it since WW2 into a more Liberal vs Conservative arena.

Photo: AP

A disillusioned manifesto for a sleepy election

My country goes to the polls and I fail to feel any passion. Often elections are a time of euphoria and suspense, waiting for the people's verdict after months of campaigning, promises, criticisms, commitments, debates and other dressings on the ballot salad. This time round it almost feels like a long-overdue medical treatment. Two years of government by Romano Prodi, although courageous in many aspects and certainly efficient on certain deregulations and public debt, left me disillusioned about the entire reformist cause.

Italy is a nation with an overwhelmingly vital spirit, strifled by a morass system of power, favor, connection, corruption and self-serving lack of sense of State duty. From the worst kind of university professor to the worst kind of spoiled public employee, from politically appointed heads of hospital wards to political calculations in public management decisions, from monopolist professional corporations to out-of-touch trade unions Italy seems an inscrutable mosaic of small centers of power. A boot-shaped colony of small and big octopi maneuvering and sharing their citizen preys, playing with them and enjoying the untouchability granted by condescending higher spheres of power.

I love my country and wish to see it prosper. But the promises of the main parties fail to tackle the essential lack of liberty that destroys people's hopes. Promises to reduce bureaucracy are empty when they are confronted with public employment trade unions to whose demands most governments had to yield. Deregulation is not the granting of more taxi licenses in the city of Rome but the abolishment of fixed-quota taxi licensing altogether. Promises of job creation cannot be fulfilled when punitive business fees and union rules prevent enterprise, when professional orders rule their professions like a mafia and a law graduate can't set up shop without the blessing of the local monopolist order branch.

Italy needs to
-- redefine its national unity in a federal framework, promote fiscal responsibility among its 20 regions to stop the outflow of taxpayers' money from North to South,
-- create a stronger and freer Government with greater PM powers,
-- reform the election laws to introduce rigid first-past-the-post systems,
-- cut public expenditure by cutting red tape and administrative power centres,
-- abolish the 108 (and counting) Provinces as per referendum (conveniently shelved)
-- deregulate all professions leaving the orders as highly-respected certifying bodies,
-- eradicate trade union politicization,
-- reform higher education toward greater private financing and professorial accountability,
-- Privatize all publicly-owned corporations to eliminate the root cause of their politicization and inefficiency (government appointments)
-- Reform its pension system to aim for the radical downsizing of the national pension fund

Parties promise some or many of these. But these aims are impossible to achieve for a coalition alone. While Berlusconi and his tactics are in politics, no great consensus can be reached. The delusional and archaic leftists may well influence a left-wing majority. And certainly constitutional reform will be stalled due to lack of a 2/3 majority.

I feel close to no passion because I have almost ceased to hope for an awakening of people's sense of civic duty. Italy's problems are before their very eyes, yet the blame-game is still the most popular pastime in Rome. Lack of strong and sweeping commitments denotes complacency with the constituted status quo and power equilibrium.

I remain hopeful, but no party can expect my passionate endorsement until it decides to take a strong and consistent stance on greater freedom of choice, personal liberty, devolution and deregulation.

The ideas are there, maybe; the willpower definitely isn't. How can that excite and inspire a voter?