The Deceitful Caucasus

Those following the news coming from South Ossetia will no doubt be astounded by the different views of the conflict held by the Georgians, Ossetians, Russians and foreigners. The entire region is a gunpowder depot waiting to explode, and the immaturity of the Georgian political administration is the detonator.

The two breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia had the legal right to secede from everyone when the Soviet Union collapsed, and they have been self-governing de facto since 1991. This is an essential premise to the debate as to whether they are indeed deserving of recognition. With an ungovernable Kosovo, which after years of NATO/EU rule still can't sort itself out, being awarded the status of an internationally recognized state the case for recognizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia, who won their independence, is very compelling.

Saakashvili has gradually increased tensions with Russia, confident that his close friendship with the United States and Georgia's bid to join NATO would shield his country from any retaliation by the northern neighbor. Anyone with the minimal understanding of politics will understand this is a strategy leading to war.

Invading a heavily armed breakaway republic whose population holds Russian citizenship (over 80%) has cut Georgia's chances of being considered for military aid in the conflict. Condi Rice is merely advocating both sides to be reasonable, while both presidential hopefuls avoid mentioning military intervention. Let there be no doubt: as long as Georgian forces remain in S.O. they will be minced by the Russians and the Ossetians with equal gusto.

The Georgian President is probably holding a backward view of NATO as a military block for containing Russia, thus he must demonstrate military might and courage in order to obtain membership. He is plainly wrong: NATO is a political block, and Georgia's membership is necessary for containing Iran and having closer bases to Syria than are currently available.

Saakashvili's stupidity will cost thousands of lives and possibly a regional violence escalation, as Abkhaz fire has already hit the Georgian side too, opening a possible second front. This situation cannot continue.

The West must immediately tell Georgia and Russia to withdraw from South Ossetia, recognize the breakaway republics to keep consistent with the Kosovo precedent and dispatch a truly international peacekeeping force to the borders. The two republics hold little strategic significance, as the major Caspian oil pipelines do not pass through their territory.

What a waste of lives.