Told ya so!

Krazy at the Broom points out that a European Union - commissioned inquiry into the August 2008 conflict between Russia and Georgia was started by Georgia. I always maintained and argued that was the case. Not because I'm a pro-Russian nut, but because I don't buy into Western delusions.

Just because a government declares itself friendly to the West and looks to NATO and the EU doesn't mean it is a democratic, legitimate or intelligent government. Saakashvili, the Georgian president, has no grasp of international politics and lives in his own la-la-land where he can prod Russia and the West will not only support him, but defend him in battle when the fuse blows.

Russia has no use for such a pawn, or for the two breakaway regions straddling the Russia-Georgia border. There's nothing to be had there except mountains, poverty, smuggling, regional ethnic hates and trouble begging to boil over. But when a hostile government breaches a ceasefire treaty and starts shelling your own citizens, one has to react and bury the enemy's army under a cloud of Grad missiles.

The August conflict taught Georgia a lesson: the pawn cooled his heats and toned down the rhetoric. Until that nut is ousted from office, the Caucasus will always remain a gunpowder barrel ready to unleash its shock waves.

The Deceitful Caucasus

Those following the news coming from South Ossetia will no doubt be astounded by the different views of the conflict held by the Georgians, Ossetians, Russians and foreigners. The entire region is a gunpowder depot waiting to explode, and the immaturity of the Georgian political administration is the detonator.

The two breakaway regions of South Ossetia and Abkhazia had the legal right to secede from everyone when the Soviet Union collapsed, and they have been self-governing de facto since 1991. This is an essential premise to the debate as to whether they are indeed deserving of recognition. With an ungovernable Kosovo, which after years of NATO/EU rule still can't sort itself out, being awarded the status of an internationally recognized state the case for recognizing South Ossetia and Abkhazia, who won their independence, is very compelling.

Saakashvili has gradually increased tensions with Russia, confident that his close friendship with the United States and Georgia's bid to join NATO would shield his country from any retaliation by the northern neighbor. Anyone with the minimal understanding of politics will understand this is a strategy leading to war.

Invading a heavily armed breakaway republic whose population holds Russian citizenship (over 80%) has cut Georgia's chances of being considered for military aid in the conflict. Condi Rice is merely advocating both sides to be reasonable, while both presidential hopefuls avoid mentioning military intervention. Let there be no doubt: as long as Georgian forces remain in S.O. they will be minced by the Russians and the Ossetians with equal gusto.

The Georgian President is probably holding a backward view of NATO as a military block for containing Russia, thus he must demonstrate military might and courage in order to obtain membership. He is plainly wrong: NATO is a political block, and Georgia's membership is necessary for containing Iran and having closer bases to Syria than are currently available.

Saakashvili's stupidity will cost thousands of lives and possibly a regional violence escalation, as Abkhaz fire has already hit the Georgian side too, opening a possible second front. This situation cannot continue.

The West must immediately tell Georgia and Russia to withdraw from South Ossetia, recognize the breakaway republics to keep consistent with the Kosovo precedent and dispatch a truly international peacekeeping force to the borders. The two republics hold little strategic significance, as the major Caspian oil pipelines do not pass through their territory.

What a waste of lives.

Don't endorse Saakashvili!

Backing of their current administration by the USA is the last thing Georgians need today.

Saakashvili has mismanaged the country and turned it into a murky place. Not that it wasn't before his messianic coming, but now the murkiness is in the spotlight. The perpetual straining of relationships with Russia is no positive way to lead a country. Saakashvili probably endorses the neo-conservative enemy mentality, i.e. that there needs to be an enemy for the nation to be united. This is the only basis for such an ill-timed endorsement for such an administration.

The principles behind the Rose Revolution are noble. Sometimes it does happen that the right cause is advocated and pursued by the wrong person. Until we realize this Georgians will suffer.

Recipe for disaster

States of emergency after popular dissent seem to be trendy among oppressive nations these days. I will only quote Burma and Pakistan as examples where a power-hungry elite (or individual) just won't recognize that it's time to put itself to the test of public opinion (i.e. vote). Or it won't give in to public pressure to change course.

This trendy dish is typically served with a condiment of media gagging and arrests of oppositioners, mostly by placing them under house arrest or through timely unearthing of allegations of corruption, coup-staging or any other crime. Sprinkles of skillful case-tailoring are supposed to add that aftertaste of legality that no-one really spots, and same goes for other accompaniments of institutional endorsements that smell a little foul.

This dictatorial recipe book is unfortunately still quite popular. What should worry us is the fact that it's being discovered in places that we either placed trust in or that are too close to our borders.

Today Georgia's parliament approved UNANIMOUSLY the state of emergency imposed by president Saakashvili in the wake of brutally dispersed protests against his allegedly dictatorial rule and abuse of justice. I don't think this sounds right. Considering there are arrests of opposition leaders and indictment of a prominent businessman on counts of staging a coup, the picture looks pretty familiar. With elections looming, I doubt anyone can consider them fair if the leaders of the opposition are under investigation, exile or arrest.

I hope to be wrong, but I detect a whiff of farcical politics. The infamous cookbook might be making a comeback. Kindzmarauli wine, anyone?