All Tories may be raising their glasses to the new Senate majority, but the celebrations will be cut short. Parliament will resume following a tremendously unpopular prorogation with a House of Commons afflicted by rampant partisanship and overflowing with egos. On his part Harper has lost the last excuse for legislation not being passed. Try negotiating Cape Horn on a wooden log through gales, icebergs and rain with nothing but a tiny oar and you might get a picture of the task before the Conservative government in the next session.
This Government has steered the economy through a recession, made Canada's opinion relevant again and made inroads into traditional Liberal policy strongholds. Yet the Conservative party has failed to clinch the deal with the electorate, otherwise how can one explain them being neck and neck with the Grits? I bet many Tory supporters will be asking themselves the very same question.
I am no politico, but I can spot unsuccessful tactics. The government made the serious mistake of relying on the "thank you" vote on many issues in 2008, such as the "Quebec nation" declaration. It doesn't work. What's given is given and the public wants more for their lent vote. The defence of doing what other parties have done extensively is wearing thin: if you're different you have to show it.
Michael Ignatieff would be right to smell blood: four years of good government and no guaranteed majority in sight are a sign of wariness. He also has one last chance to reverse the new Senate majority: conservative Senator Wilbert Keon retires in May. An early March dissolution would lead to an April election. By May a new government could be installed and appointing the new Senator. This Government is vulnerable.
So far it has been smooth-ish sailing for Harper. Weak Liberal leadership and a warming Canadian public opinion buoyed him to government twice. On March 3rd the big game begins: he has run out of excuses. Petty legislative shots at the opposition will no longer be tolerated in the Commons and outside. The Tory communications apparatus will have to clean up their act and get cracking with strong and effective messages. If Parliament turns out to be uncooperative Harper will have no option but to seek an election in early June, too close to the start of the new prorogued session to be kosher.
Harper is expected to deliver a visionary Throne Speech, a good Budget, tough crime legislation and Senate reform bills. Each will irk the Liberals and is loaded with perils if not spun properly (arts travel grant controversy docet), while the electorate still needs convincing. If you thought we were at the peak you'd better clench your buttocks and hold on to your harnesses: we could be in for a ride. Playtime is over.
11 comments:
You have hit the nail on the head with this post. People want to hear positive messages, so far we are hearing nothing from Conservatives. They have gone into hiding and are letting the opposition drive the message. This has to stop. The Conservative communications team is non-existent. Blame the lefty media all you want, but it doesn't change the fact that the Conservatives have no message to send.
Oh my.
Stephen Harper united the right,
reduced what was supposed to be the largest majority in Cdn history to a minority,
won a minority,
won an increased minority,
staved off the coalition of losers,
stands tall amongst the leaders of other coutries around the globe,
was last man standing at Dopenhagen,
is in the position to finally begin to reform the Senate,
has no natural allies amongst the 3 other parties in parliament,
has 3/4 of the national media outlets out to get him, big time an full time......
PM Stephen Harper is beginning his 5th year of governing over the longest running minority government in Canadian history....
so far, so good, eh
So far, so good: great achievements. But why are Canadians still undecided? What is holding them back?
We have built a strong base as well as a great record. We can either rest on our laurels (and float on as a minority) or create a grander vision for Canada and engage Canadians in it.
Get me right: Harper has done an amazing job so far. But he has to deliver us into majority territory solidly. That will not come by itself in the wake of what we have done.
Yo Luca,
Panic much?
I'm not saying all is well, and I agree that mistakes have been made. Harper and the CPC better get their game-face on, but I think you are over-reacting.
I think the core CPC support is stronger than the core Liberal support - or at least it used to be. I wonder whether the biggest threat to Harper is not the Liberals, but the Libertarian and Fiscal conservatives who were some of the most vocal and active supporters of Mr. Harper, and that seem to have been thrown under the bus in the past couple years.
We shall see.
You are right wilson but there is no end to the voters greed for more goodies while forgetting about the "good deeds"of the past.
Rob C
wilson I agree with everything you say, but we Conservatives are the only one who know how amazing PM Harper has been, the media sure hasn't told the truth. MP's are doing nothing to expand the Conservative vision, to connect with their voters, to make some local news. PM Harper can not be expected to carry the whole party.
I wouldn't say MPs are doing nothing. I think that, given the chance, most of them would be great conservative advocates. However AFAIK the party's discipline regarding talking with the media and delivering one's own message is to keep the trap shut as much as possible.
Maybe it's because the media pounce on any practitioner of dontopedology, which is bad publicity for the party throughout. That's also why we don't have tailored election messages in specific ridings.
I am far from panicking. Just pointing out that with this new majority our troubles are about to be magnified. My confidence in the PM is unshaken.
The media launched an all out assault on PMSH over prorogygate,
they got a tie......worry not
Iffy got an unexpected media vacuum to fill, propped and prodded by their media, and they have nothing!
Enjoy the next week of Iffy Plays House, 2 weeks of Olympics,
and then we ROLL BABY!!!
o/t
Canada and the environment:
A fresh start for a fresh decade
by Preston Manning*
The Globe and Mail –
January 25, 2010
http://www.manningcentre.ca/blog/canada-and-environment-fresh-start-fresh-decade
The reason Harper is down in the polls is because he is a loser. He has made few achievements to put Canada further to the Right and done much to shift it left, such as signing the Copenhagen accord. He has sent our movement years back; the damage is remarkable. And you let-encouraged him, actually-to do it.
We were better off under JC&PM.
Lets not forget the Harper Sales Tax coming to Ontario and BC.Don't you think this will have turned a lot of voters off. Millions spent to bribe McGuinty and his other liberal pal just so we can all pay more taxes to provincial liberal parties. As well a lot of conservative are pretty upset about him signing the Copenhagen accord. Both of these things are on a par with his stupidity the last election with the arts funding fiasco
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