NOT a pandemic yet

Swine flu is sweeping the news, but this is not a desperate situation yet. The WHO alert level is 3 out of possible 6, with 1 and 2 being almost complete absence of viruses. Quoting from the WHO website (emphasis mine):

In Phase 3, an animal or human-animal influenza reassortant virus has caused sporadic cases or small clusters of disease in people, but has not resulted in human-to-human transmission sufficient to sustain community-level outbreaks. Limited human-to-human transmission may occur under some circumstances, for example, when there is close contact between an infected person and an unprotected caregiver. However, limited transmission under such restricted circumstances does not indicate that the virus has gained the level of transmissibility among humans necessary to cause a pandemic.

If the virus has maintained its H1N1 characteristics like in 1918, it should cause a cytokine storm, which is an immune system over-reaction. The new strain of swine flu appears to strike young adults indeed, but as Tara Smith, a medically cognizant blogger puts it:

the data from Mexico (from media reports, at least) are sparse, and only a handful of cases have been confirmed to be caused by the novel swine flu virus. This makes attempts to extrapolate to any larger trends a risky and imprecise endeavor, and the old adage certainly applies: garbage in, garbage out. So right now (again, from media-reported data), we don't know for sure that there really is a higher number of "young and healthy" dying from this virus than we would expect to see--so whether this trend even exists is a big question mark.

Is this the deadly pandemic we've been overdue for? Looks like it isn't: many people don't even need hospitalization. WHO update of today states (emphasis mine):

As of 26 April 2009, the United States Government has reported 20 laboratory confirmed human cases of swine influenza A/H1N1 (8 in New York, 7 in California, 2 in Texas, 2 in Kansas and 1 in Ohio). All 20 cases have had mild Influenza-Like Illness with only one requiring brief hospitalization. No deaths have been reported. All 20 viruses have the same genetic pattern based on preliminary testing. The virus is being described as a new subtype of A/H1N1 not previously detected in swine or humans.

So here's the deal: we have a new virus that has reassorted in pigs allowing pig-human transmission and probably combined with a mild flu virus in a human body through simultaneous infection. If it were a pandemic-grade virus Mexico would be sneezing in unison by now.

Therefore take extra care, wash your hands a lot and, if it comes to Canada, be prepared to have a bumpy ride on the flu trolley, as you won't be immune. It doesn't look like the grim reaper at all.